Listen: What’s at stake in Moldova?

All eyes are on Europe's east this weekend, where Moldovans head to the polls on Sunday in an election that could define the country’s future, as they will have to decide between Europe and Russia.

So, what happens if Moldova holds its course towards Brussels, or drifts back into Moscow’s orbit?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Long Story Short” hosted by Evi Kiorri. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:

All eyes are on Europe's east this weekend, where Moldovans head to the polls on Sunday in an election that could define the country’s future as they will have to decide between Europe and Russia. So what happens if Moldova holds its course towards Brussels, or drifts back into Moscow’s orbit?

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at the UN this week, put it bluntly: “Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova.” With just 2.5 million people, the small republic might seem marginal on a map, but geopolitically, it is anything but. Moldova acts as a buffer on the EU’s eastern flank, hosts over a hundred thousand Ukrainian refugees, and sends two-thirds of its exports straight to Europe. So, you understand that its future orientation matters well beyond its borders.

On the one side, there is President Maia Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity, which has overseen unprecedented cooperation with the EU, from trade to roaming-free mobile data by 2026. On the other side, the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, a pro-Russian alliance promising “normalisation” with Moscow. Current polling shows the two running neck and neck.

And behind all this is what Moldovan officials describe as Russia’s “hybrid war”: disinformation, vote-buying, cyberattacks, even false bomb threats. Hundreds of millions of euros are allegedly being poured into destabilising the election. Moscow denies everything, of course. But given what we’ve seen in Georgia, Belarus, and beyond, no one is really buying that line anymore.

Now, Moldova is the canary in Europe’s eastern coal mine. If it turns towards Russia, the EU not only loses a partner, it weakens Ukraine, risks destabilisation at its borders, and undermines its own influence in the region. The promises of reform, EU accession, and democratic consolidation would be put on hold, if not reversed entirely.

And for Moldovans, geopolitics isn’t the most important part, when rising living costs, energy insecurity, and political corruption have already eroded faith in pro-European leadership. When people are struggling to pay their electricity bills, warnings about “hybrid wars” can sound abstract, even if the threat is real. And that disillusionment is precisely what Russia counts on.

So what can happen there?

The most likely scenario is a fragile result where Sandu’s party may come first but fall short of a majority, forcing difficult coalition talks. That could water down reforms and slow Moldova’s EU path. A pro-Russian victory, meanwhile, would be a direct setback for Brussels and a clear win for Moscow.

According to analysts the turnout will probably be what shapes the results. The Moldovan diaspora, with more than a million eligible voters abroad, has often tipped the scales towards Europe. As one Romanian MEP warned, the best defence against interference is mass participation.

Whatever the outcome, Sunday’s vote is more than a domestic affair. It’s a referendum on whether a small, fragile state at Europe’s border can resist Russian pressure and stay on the path to Europe. And it’s a test for the EU as well,  because if Brussels cannot keep Moldova close, then its credibility in the east will take yet another blow.