Moldova's progress is real but fragile — this weekend's election could reverse that

As Moldova heads into parliamentary elections this Sunday (28 September), the political stakes could not be higher. The country stands at a critical juncture, with its democratic trajectory and European aspirations under sustained pressure from pro-Russian actors, both domestic and foreign.

And yet, despite these challenges, Moldova has made real, measurable reform progress.

Democratic institutions have been reinforced, governance is becoming more transparent, and reforms aligned with the European Union accession criteria are advancing.

According to the Eastern Partnership Index 2025, Moldova now ranks at the top of the region, a direct contradiction to the Kremlin’s persistent narrative that nothing has changed for the better. Yes, reform is work in progress, and challenges are substantial.

But the gains made are genuine and provide a solid foundation for further transformation, if Moldova stays the course. 

Moldova’s reform path accelerated following the 2021 parliamentary elections, when president Maia Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) secured a governing majority.

This mandate enabled the government to launch an ambitious reform agenda focused on dismantling systemic corruption, reforming judiciary, aligning policies with EU standards, and ensuring energy independence from Russia. Civil society has played an important role in supporting the implementation of these reforms. 

Referendum approval for EU

A major boost to Moldova’s reform agenda came in June 2024, when the EU formally opened accession negotiations, a historic milestone in the country’s EU integration path.

Later that year, in October 2024, a nationwide referendum narrowly approved a constitutional amendment enshrining EU membership as a strategic national objective.

According to the findings of the Eastern Partnership Index 2025, Moldova remains the leading country in the region in public administration reform, with its score rising from 0.74 to 0.78 (on a 1-point scale) since 2023.

The country has made Regulatory Impact Assessments mandatory for all legislation, signalling progress toward greater transparency, though implementation across agencies remains uneven for now.

Moldova has also developed one of the most advanced gender equality frameworks in the region, including a National Strategy for Ensuring Equality between Women and Men (2023-2027). This focus on inclusivity complements broader efforts to strengthen public administration. 

A notable example is the SPRINT programme, which provides professional development opportunities for young civil servants and aims to strengthen administrative capacity while making public sector careers more attractive.

However, significant challenges persist.

Low salaries in the civil service continue to drive high turnover, undermining institutional stability just as Moldova enters the resource-intensive phase of implementing the EU acquis. Sustained investment in human capital and institutional capacity will be essential to maintain reform momentum and prevent the risk of stalled progress.

Moldova's state accountability score rose sharply from 0.72 to 0.87, a reflection of enhanced parliamentary oversight, revitalised cooperation between civil society and parliament, and greater fiscal transparency since the previous assessment of the Eastern Partnership Index (2023).

The 2024 Law on Access to Public Information significantly improved public oversight, while initiatives such as the Citizens’ Budget, the BOOST database, and an Open Data Platform expanded access to budgetary data.

An important milestone occurred on 3 November 2023, when the government approved the Open Government Partnership Action Plan, developed with civil society's input. The plan promotes transparency, accountability, and public participation. 

Spies, police, judges?

At the same time, civilian oversight of intelligence services and law enforcement is still weak, and entrenched interests continue to resist deeper reform.

Political polarisation, fuelled in part by pro-Kremlin factions, adds further strain. The 2023 ban on the Shor Party, for unconstitutional and destabilising activities, was a step toward safeguarding democratic processes, but the battle is far from over.

Anti-corruption efforts saw modest but important gains, with Moldova’s score rising from 0.77 to 0.79 in the span of the last two years, as assessed by the Eastern Partnership Index. Key measures included restructuring anti-corruption agencies, appointing specialised judges, and launching the National Integrity and Anti-Corruption Programme (2024–2028).

A slight decline in the judiciary score, from 0.90 to 0.88, reflects ongoing difficulties in reforming this area and the deeply entrenched risks of politicisation.

Nevertheless, Moldova remains a regional leader. It climbed from 82nd to 64th place in the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index (2020–2024), thanks in part to the vetting of judges.

This process exposed serious financial irregularities and led to governance reforms, though mass resignations of judges and institutional fragility still pose significant hurdles which will need to be overcome.

Moldova experienced a drop of 0.11 in the score on democratic rights, elections, and pluralism. This decline is largely attributed to significant external interference favouring Moscow-leaning parties, vote buying recorded by the observers, and foreign meddling that undermined election integrity.

Although the administration of the elections was technically efficient during the last elections in 2024, weaknesses such as an unreformed Central Election Commission and low public trust in electoral institutions persisted.

Political tensions have escalated ahead of the 2025 elections.

Though the Shor Party was banned, its networks persist, particularly in Gagauzia, under new names and backed by illicit funding and Russian influence.

Meanwhile, the Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BCS), the main opposition, has intensified its pro-Russian rhetoric.

In March 2025, BCS lawmakers introduced a controversial 'foreign agents' bill targeting NGOs, closely mirroring Russian legislation and drawing strong condemnation from civil society — it appears the party is trying to mimic the Georgian Dream scenario of democratic backsliding under the guise of national sovereignty.

The 2025 parliamentary elections are more than a political contest; they are a referendum on Moldova’s future. Will the country continue building a democratic, European state, or will it be pulled back into the Kremlin’s orbit through disinformation and political sabotage?

Moldova’s reform progress is real and backed by data. But it is also fragile. Reversing course would not only stall the country’s EU integration, but it would also unravel years of hard-won gains.

The world, and Moldovan voters, must not be misled by Russian narratives. What is at stake on 28 September is nothing less than the democratic future of Moldova.

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