Bulgaria’s rule-of-law crisis could be Europe’s next headache

The EU’s latest rule-of-law drama isn’t in Warsaw or Budapest — it’s brewing quietly in Sofia.

Unlike Poland and Hungary, Bulgaria isn’t rewriting or bending its constitution to political will, nor is it openly defying Brussels.

Instead, it masks democratic erosion behind the language of legality, preserving the form of the law while hollowing out its substance. 

Two recent cases — the jailing of opposition mayor Blagomir Kotsev and the case of acting prosecutor general Borislav Sarafov — lay bare how legality is used performatively rather than upheld.

And that makes Bulgaria’s drift a subtler, but not less dangerous, challenge for Europe.  

Jail first, justice later: the Kotsev case

When Varna’s opposition mayor Blagomir Kotsev was detained on corruption charges this July, the move sent shockwaves through Bulgaria’s political scene.

Elected in 2023, Kotsev suddenly found himself behind bars in a case built almost entirely on the testimony of his deputy — testimony later recanted, with the deputy admitting he had spoken under pressure from the Anti-Corruption Commission. Prosecutors refused to hear him again.

And yet, court after court in Sofia refused to release Kotsev, warning he might commit crimes or obstruct the investigation.

That logic doesn’t hold up.

Under Bulgarian law — and European human rights standards — pre-trial detention is supposed to be exceptional, justified only if there’s both a reasonable presumption of guilt and concrete evidence that the accused might flee or reoffend. Courts must also consider less restrictive options like bail or house arrest.

In Kotsev’s case, none of that happened. Judges leaned almost entirely on the seriousness of the charges, turning a preventive tool into something that looked a lot like punishment.

The presumption of innocence also took a hit. At one hearing, prosecutors argued Kotsev should stay locked up because there was “no conclusive evidence that would exonerate him”.

In other words: guilty until proven innocent. By shifting the burden of proof onto the defendant, the court hollowed out one of the most basic principles of European justice.

And then came a further twist. In September, a panel of the Sofia Court of Appeal stepped aside from the case altogether — not because the law required it, but because judges said they felt unsettled by public criticism. By treating scrutiny as “impermissible pressure,” they turned judicial independence into a shield against accountability. In any democracy, courts are expected to withstand debate, not retreat from it.

Already flagged in European media as a warning sign of creeping authoritarianism, the Kotsev case has become more than a local scandal. For Europe, the danger is clear: when judicial institutions are used for political reasons, trust in the rule of law — at home and across the EU — begins to crumble.

From temporary to untouchable: the Sarafov case

Borislav Sarafov is the other face of Bulgaria’s rule-of-law crisis — once appointed as acting prosecutor general, he has since been cemented in power by institutions that turned his interim role into permanence.

Far from a neutral or independent figure, he has been dogged by scandals — from questionable property deals to allegations of political dependency — yet his position remains virtually unassailable.

In 2023, Sarafov was appointed as an interim chief prosecutor after the dramatic removal of his predecessor. By law, the post was meant to be temporary — a stopgap until a permanent successor was chosen.

But in a quiet institutional sleight of hand, the Supreme Judicial Council interpreted the rules to mean Sarafov’s 'acting' appointment had effectively become permanent. Without a new vote, without competition, the provisional became definitive.

The council dressed its move in legal language — citing statutes, invoking continuity, offering formal justifications.

But it gutted the core promise: that Bulgaria’s most powerful prosecutorial post would be filled openly and accountably. A role meant to be temporary became entrenched power.

Indeed, Sarafov’s rise is symptomatic of a deeper pathology. While opposition figures like Varna’s mayor are jailed on shaky grounds, the man at the top of the prosecution pyramid consolidates authority with institutional blessing. Two sides of the same coin: repression for opponents, impunity for insiders.

For the EU’s poorest and most corruption-plagued member, Bulgaria’s rule-of-law troubles may hardly come as a shock.

What is striking is not the spectacle, but the quiet, systematic disregard for the spirit of the law. In hollowing out legality, Bulgaria is not only undermining its own democratic development — it is eroding the trust on which Europe’s entire legal order depends.

And that means the cost of Sofia’s drift will be paid well beyond Bulgaria’s borders.

Every month, hundreds of thousands of people read the journalism and opinion published by EUobserver. With your support, millions of others will as well.

If you're not already, become a supporting member today.