Russia’s war against Ukraine is not a 'territorial dispute' and not a 'security crisis' that can be resolved through compromise. Moscow’s officially declared goal is so-called “denazification”, but in reality, the destruction of Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a nation. Under these conditions, any security guarantees negotiated with Russia are not a path to peace, but merely a postponement of the next war.
Russia systematically violates every agreement it signs once it no longer serves its imperial interests: the Budapest Memorandum, treaties with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, international humanitarian law, and the basic norms of the United Nations. Expecting that the Kremlin will 'keep its word' this time is not optimism – it is dangerous self-deception.
The idea of 'security guarantees' in negotiations with Moscow looks reasonable only on paper. in reality, Russia does not recognise Ukraine as a real subject of international politics and does not accept its right to exist as an independent state. For the Kremlin, violating agreements is not an exception, it is the rule.
Even the presence of foreign military contingents on Ukrainian territory is not an automatic guarantee of peace. History offers examples where formal guarantees and allied troops did not stop an aggressor. In 1940, guarantees, agreements and a British army contingent did not save France from catastrophe.
When an aggressor sees that its opponents rely primarily on agreements, it reads this as weakness - and that only encourages it to ignore all paper obligations.
Not a local tragedy
A fundamental mistake of many European politicians is that they still see the war as a local tragedy for Ukraine. In reality, Russia is already waging war against Europe – hybrid, informational, energy-based, subversive, and, in Ukraine, open and military. Ukraine is the front-line of what is, in essence, a European war.
Therefore, the question of security guarantees is not 'how to protect Ukraine', but 'how Europe avoids losing a war that is already underway'. If Ukraine falls or is forced into a false peace, the next open target will be Europe itself.
Accordingly, real guarantees cannot be signatures under agreements with an aggressor. They can only be practical actions that make a new aggression impossible – or suicidal – for Russia.
Such guarantees can only include:
- a common European-Ukrainian defence space;
- a shared defence policy;
- integrated air and missile defence systems;
- a jointly closed sky over Ukraine and Europe;
- long-term military and technological strengthening of Ukraine as a key element of European security.
The main real guarantee today is the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian people, who at the cost of their own lives are holding back the Russian army. But shifting all responsibility onto Ukraine is an escape from reality, not a strategy.
This inevitably raises the question of the United States’ position. Paradoxically, Washington’s own statements that this war is 'a European war' logically lead to one conclusion: containing Russia must become the task of Europeans themselves. Not formally through NATO - which is politically blocked by the position of the current US administration - but through their own collective defence will.
In this sense, a strong, militarily organised Europe that takes responsibility for a closed sky, common defence and the protection of Ukraine would be not only acceptable but even desirable for the United States. Because it would mean not a weaker, but a stronger Western civilisation with shared rather than outsourced responsibility.
To conclude: peace with Russia on the basis of trust is possible. It is possible only on the basis of strength, deterrence and the understanding that the war is already pan-European. Security guarantees are not texts of treaties – they are the ability to make a new war impossible for the aggressor.
Ukraine has already done its part of this work. Now the question stands before Europe: is it ready to understand that defending Ukraine means defending its own future - and to act accordingly, without delay.
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