The European Commission has released its annual enlargement report and there’s movement on Europe’s waiting list. Ten countries are candidates to join the EU: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, Turkey, and Ukraine.
They all want a seat at the table, but who is really getting closer to joining, and who is falling behind?
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The European Commission has released its annual enlargement report and there’s movement on Europe’s waiting list. Ten countries are officially candidates to join the EU: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, Turkey, and Ukraine.
They all want a seat at the table, but who is really getting closer to joining, and who is falling behind?
To join the EU, each country must align its national legislation with 35 EU negotiation chapters covering areas from the rule of law to economic policy. Progress at every stage requires unanimous approval from all 27 current member states.
According to the commission, Albania, Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine have made the most progress this year. Montenegro is currently the most advanced candidate. Albania follows closely, having implemented significant judicial reforms and both governments aim to conclude negotiations in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
Ukraine and Moldova continue to move forward on reforms in parallel, and both aim to complete negotiations by 2028. Their progress has been recognised by the Commission, although concerns remain over corruption in Ukraine and hybrid threats in Moldova.
However, the process is not uniformly positive. Serbia’s reforms have slowed, particularly regarding the rule of law and fundamental rights, and the Commission has warned of democratic backsliding. Georgia, where democratic standards have deteriorated significantly, is now described as an EU candidate “in name only”.
Turkey’s accession process remains effectively frozen. Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo have shown limited progress in key areas.
Political considerations continue to shape the process. Hungary is blocking the next steps in accession talks for Ukraine, which also affects Moldova, as the two files are politically linked. Meanwhile, France and Germany advocate a cautious approach, noting that EU institutional reforms may be necessary before major enlargement can proceed.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said that admitting new countries by 2030 is a “realistic goal”. And Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also stressed that expansion is linked to geopolitical stability following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Now, candidate countries view accession as a long-term guarantee of democratic stability, security, and economic development. For Ukraine and Moldova, EU membership is particularly linked to security against Russian aggression.
At the same time, delays and political vetoes have contributed to “reform fatigue” in the Western Balkans. Several candidates have been in the process for over a decade, and stalled progress risks weakening public trust in both the EU and domestic reform efforts.
Within the EU, support for enlargement remains mixed. Concerns include institutional capacity, decision-making efficiency, and financial redistribution. With unanimity required at every stage, individual member states retain significant leverage over the process.
What’s next?
If current momentum holds, Montenegro and Albania could be the first to conclude negotiations in the coming years. Ukraine and Moldova will need to accelerate reforms to meet their 2028 target, while simultaneously navigating political obstacles, including Hungary’s veto.
The EU is considering procedural adjustments to avoid single-country vetoes blocking technical steps in accession. Discussions are also ongoing about internal EU reforms, potentially including changes to voting rules on foreign policy and future budget adjustments.
And it looks like progress will depend on two factors: the candidate countries’ ability to continue implementing reforms, and the political will of EU member states to approve expansion.
Evi Kiorri is a Brussels-based journalist, multimedia producer, and podcaster with deep experience in European affairs.
Evi Kiorri is a Brussels-based journalist, multimedia producer, and podcaster with deep experience in European affairs.