For years, the European Union has invested in fossil gas as a 'bridge fuel'. That gamble has backfired: Europe is still gripped by soaring bills, supply disruptions, and geopolitical risk.
To fill the gap left by Russian imports, EU countries have locked themselves into expensive and polluting liquified natural gas (LNG) deals with the US.
Now, several Western Balkan countries have a rare opportunity to skip fossil gas altogether and leapfrog straight to building a renewable energy system. Doing so would save billions in public spending, bolster energy security, improve public health, and strengthen real resilience.
The six countries of the region collectively use the equivalent of just one percent of the EU’s total gas consumption.
In fact, three — Albania, Kosovo and Montenegro — barely use gas at all.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, gas makes up just three percent of available energy. And North Macedonia and Serbia still have much lower gas-dependence than the EU.
Their governments should recognise this as a strategic advantage, not a weakness. At a moment when Europe is struggling to accelerate its fossil fuel phase-out and decarbonisation of the economy, the Western Balkans can lead the way.
Yet, rather than building on that lead, almost every government in the region, except for Kosovo, is planning a massive gas infrastructure expansion.
If completed, this would increase the region’s import capacity to triple its 2023 gas consumption, creating decades of dependence or leaving countries stuck with stranded assets.
In 2023, together with Global Energy Monitor, we identified plans for€3.5bn worth of proposed gas infrastructure in the region.
We’ve now updated the data and found that despite EU funding sources for gas drying up, the plans have remained remarkably steady in the last two years. Of the 2,715km of pipelines planned in 2023, 2,551km are still on the table. And plans for power plants have increased from 2.4 gigawatts (GW) to 2.9 GW.
The scale of this gas build-out reflects more than just bad planning. It’s the result of an induced addiction: one nurtured by fossil-fuel lobbyists and short-termist energy diplomacy, and enabled for too long by international financiers and the EU.
Unlike the EU, no Western Balkan country has a strategy to reduce gas use
The Western Balkans are being nudged from one fossil trap (coal) into another (gas).
Decision-makers in the region seem unaware that these plans are unrealistic. Unlike the EU, no Western Balkan country has a strategy to reduce gas use. The projects now on the table are expensive and rely heavily on unpredictable funding from outside the region. Failure is likely, but only after precious time and resources are wasted.
Policymakers often claim that new infrastructure will reduce dependence on Russian gas. But in reality, it just shifts dependence to other import sources like Azerbaijan or the US, without solving the deeper issues of affordability and security. Households and businesses will ultimately bear the brunt of these price shocks.
Serbia, for example, is negotiating another long-term gas deal with Russia, citing a lack of cheaper alternatives. It is also planning new interconnections with Romania and North Macedonia, which would encourage increased consumption.
And the financial risks are about to increase.
From 2026, the carbon border adjustment mechanism will penalise carbon-intensive electricity exports.
The Western Balkan countries can circumvent this only by introducing their own carbon pricing. They will anyway have to do so once they join the EU, where the cost per tonne of CO2 has been constantly above €60 since 2022. Any gas plants built today risk becoming a financial liability long before their lifetimes end.
The Western Balkans already have the ingredients for a better future.
Wind and solar costs are plummeting. Clean heating solutions like heat pumps, geothermal and solar thermal are ready to scale. With smart policies like insulating homes, cutting grid losses, scaling up decentralised renewables, the region could jump directly from coal to a resilient, affordable and fully renewable power and heat sector.
This would not only reduce emissions and improve air quality, it would also free up scarce public money for investments that pay off and create local jobs
The region stands at a crossroads.
One path leads to decades of fossil fuel lock-in and stranded assets. The other leads to energy independence, EU integration and a fair renewable energy system that works for everyone.
The right choice is clear. But the EU must do its part, by sending a clear message to avoid gas lock-in and prioritising investments in renewables and clean flexibility.
Supporting the Western Balkans to break free from fossil fuel addiction is not just in Europe’s interest, it’s essential for a just and climate-safe future.
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Pippa Gallop is southeast Europe energy policy officer at CEE Bankwatch Network
Pippa Gallop is southeast Europe energy policy officer at CEE Bankwatch Network