Listen: How the EU plans to respond to Trump’s 30% trade blow

Before the weekend, Donald Trump sent a letter to the European Commission announcing his plans to slap a 30 percent tariff on nearly all EU imports, starting August 1st.

This caught Brussels off guard. An agreement was already on the table,  one that included a painful, but tolerable, 10 percent base tariff. Most EU member states were willing to swallow that to avoid the worst. But the 30 percent tariff had the European Commission rushing for a response. So, what’s von der Leyen’s plan?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Long Story Short” hosted by Evi Kiorri. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

You can find the transcript here:

Before the weekend Donald Trump sent a letter to the European Commission announcing his plans to slap a 30% tariff on nearly all EU imports, starting August 1st.

This caught Brussels off guard. Because an agreement was already on the table. One that included a painful, but tolerable, 10% base tariff, which most EU member states were willing to swallow in order to avoid worse. But 30% had the European Commission rushing to retaliate. So what’s Von der Leyen’s plan?

Welcome to Long Story Short, Europod’s daily podcast that unpacks what matters most, in just five minutes. I’m Evi Kiorri, here to make Europe’s latest, long story short.

So, in response, the European Commission is preparing a second package of countermeasures, targeting up to €73 billion in US products. But the measures will only kick in if there’s no deal.
Von der Leyen is also trying to prove Europe doesn’t need to be dependent on the US at all. She’s pushing ahead with new free trade agreements, like the one announced over the weekend with Indonesia.

It’s called CEPA, and after ten years of negotiations, it’s meant to strengthen supply chains for key industries like clean tech and steel, while giving European companies access to Indonesia’s booming economy.

But let’s not sugarcoat what's actually happening here!

The EU is already under pressure: from the war in Ukraine, economic slowdown, inflation. Key industries, especially Germany’s automotive sector and Italy’s steel producers, are already feeling the squeeze.

A 30% tariff from the US would push many of them over the edge.

Europe exports €1.4 trillion in goods and services to the US every year. But only a handful of countries, like Germany, Ireland, and Italy, export more than they import. So the damage won’t be spread evenly.
Politically, this seems more like a test of strength.

France’s Emmanuel Macron says Europe should prepare for a trade war. He’s calling on the Commission to show “determination” and accelerate credible countermeasures, including anti-coercion tools.
Germany, on the other hand, is urging a more “pragmatic” approach. Chancellor Friedrich Merz even called Trump to de-escalate. But that calm tone hasn’t gone down well everywhere.

So, what now?

EU trade ministers are meeting today to coordinate a response. And Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is expected to travel to Washington soon for direct talks.

Meanwhile, von der Leyen is speeding up negotiations with other global partners,  not just Indonesia, but also India, Thailand, and South America. Because the goal for Europe is diversifying.

If Trump’s tariffs take effect on August 1st, retaliation is almost certain. But there’s still a narrow window for diplomacy.

And behind all this there is one uncomfortable truth: global stability is wearing really really thin and the ground is shaky.

But that’s all for today on Long Story Short, a podcast by Europod in partnership with the Sphera Network. You can also find us on the EUobserver website, go check it out. Thanks for listening. I’m Evi Kiorri, and I’ll be back tomorrow at 12:30 with more insights   in just five minutes. See you then!