Panicked by superpowers, mini-states seek EU cover

During the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, in 416 BC, the small island of Melos received a message from Athens: surrender and be loyal. If not, it would face invasion and annexation. Melos happened to be the only Aegean island not controlled by Athens. We are neutral in the war, replied the islanders, we pose no threat to you.

Then, Athens issued an ultimatum and began to negotiate. Thucydides, the Athenian historian, described this ‘Melian Dialogue’ in The History of the Peloponnesian War. The justification Athens gave for Melos' subsequent annexation was that “the strong do what they can, while the weak suffer what they must”.

Today, with large powers like the US, China, and Russia trying to bully smaller ones into submission, this famous case study in political realism is once again relevant. Also in Europe. Faced with this kind of power play, small European countries are working hard to weigh their options.

The lesson seems to be that in a larger club, you have at least some protection against tyrannical superpowers. Body mass counts more than it did ten years ago

Many decide to seek cover with the EU, or more cover than before. The latest example is the principality of Liechtenstein, an Alpine state with 40,000 inhabitants sandwiched between Switzerland and Austria.

Liechtenstein, one of the world's richest countries per capita, set up a working group this summer to assess its future relations with the EU. “We are examining all options,” prime minister Brigitte Haas announced in July, “without blinkers”.

Her country has survived the first 10 months of US Donald Trump’s presidency unscathed. No one is challenging Liechtenstein, at least not yet. While Switzerland is in turmoil because president Trump has slammed tariffs of 39 percent on Swiss imports, Liechtenstein, like the EU, ‘only’ got 15 percent.

For Liechtenstein, along with Iceland and Norway (both also 15 percent), is part of the European Economic Area (EEA) that all EU countries are also part of.

This arrangement allows them, as non-EU countries, to participate in the European internal market and engage in free trade with it. Switzerland, which is not in the EEA, does not have this arrangement.

The lesson seems to be that in a larger club, you have at least some protection against tyrannical superpowers. Body mass counts more than it did 10 years ago.

Small countries in Europe seem to have gotten this message loud and clear.

Denmark, which for decades was a picky EU country not participating in European defence, judicial cooperation, or the euro, is now deepening its membership substantially: it has joined European defence initiatives and is suddenly calling for Eurobonds (common loans) to boost the defence industry.

It is not just Russia’s hybrid attacks that spook the Danes. Greenland, claimed by Trump, is Danish territory.

Greenland itself has now, like Liechtenstein, tasked a special commission to explore closer relations to the EU, including membership.

Interestingly, Greenland has already been there once: when Denmark became a member in 1975, Greenland automatically joined too.

This, however, happened against the will of the majority of Greenlanders. So, after a referendum, it exited in 1985, while Denmark stayed in.

Today, it maintains a rather close, well-functioning relationship with Brussels, which, spurred on by the “panic” that Trump’s claims have caused, seems set to become much closer in the near future. 

Then, there is Iceland, which broke off accession negotiations with the EU in 2013 because it did not want to comply with European fishing regulations.

Now, it has changed course and announced a referendum on a new accession process, probably in 2027 – the aim being “to see what the EU has on offer”.

Some say even Norway, a proud independent nation if there ever was one, might follow suit.

Norway, a Nato country facing mounting security problems with Russia in the high north, is very close to the EU, voluntarily implementing many EU regulations without Oslo having a formal say in it.

Support for a referendum on accession has grown in the past two years.

Each country’s individual decision could have an impact on the other countries, too. Should Iceland and Norway join the EU one day, for example, Liechtenstein would remain in the EEA as the only non-EU country.

Eurosceptic Switzerland

Even rather Eurosceptic Switzerland, which broke off negotiations with Brussels in 2021 on additional access to the EU’s single market because it refused to adopt certain EU rules that came with it, hurriedly signed up again last year.

Small countries suddenly feel vulnerable, Swiss EU expert Cenni Najy said on Swiss public radio last spring. And he also said: “The EU, which used to be primarily an economic power, is increasingly becoming a security power”.

Speaking of security, like Switzerland, Liechtenstein is not a member of Nato. It has no army or defence budget – unlike Iceland, which is a Nato member eager to join European defence initiatives.

What a microstate can contribute to European defence is far from clear, but Liechtenstein’s security problems are certainly similar to those of other (if not all) European countries: fake news, cybercrime, drones everywhere, and bridges, roads ,and other infrastructure that need fortification in order to allow heavy military transport to pass.

Prime minister Haas said: “Our protection is that we are a valuable partner at the heart of Europe.”

Vaduz could support EU positions in the United Nations, for example, and spend a few per cent of its GDP on defence, like Nato countries.

Will the Alpine state ever join the EU?

“I can’t imagine that at the moment,” Haas said. At least, her country has choices.

Even outsiders can integrate deeply into the EU and receive protection in return.

The people of Melos did not have this option at the time. For them, there was nowhere to hide. Athens conquered Melos, executed the men, and enslaved all women and children. A cautionary tale, indeed.

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