Contrasting expectations ahead of Japan and China summits in focus This WEEK

The European Commission’s launch of plans for a seven-year spending plan worth €2 trillion between 2028 and 2034, was its final major act before the summer holidays. And with the European Parliament now also in recess, this week is dominated by two EU summits in Japan and China on Wednesday (23 July) and Thursday (24 July). 

EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and her European Council counterpart Antonio Costa will first fly to Tokyo, where the two sides are expected to look at plans for joint public-private partnerships on rare earths and other critical materials as they look to reduce their reliance on China. 

In briefings ahead of the summit, EU officials were candid that Japan is the bloc’s closest ally in the region. They plan to launch a ‘‘competitiveness alliance’ with Japan and to hold further talks on a defence and security partnership. 

“Historically, we have been brought closer by adverse circumstances,” an EU official told reporters on Friday (18 July), pointing to mutual concerns about unfair competition from China, who they have also accused of “weaponising” access to rare earths and minerals needed for the EU’s digital and green transitions. 

The EU commission reckons that the 27-nation bloc relies on China for 98 percent of its rare earth supply and reacted angrily to China imposing export restrictions on them in June. 

Japan and the EU will also launch a new "economic two-plus-two" dialogue to bring together their foreign and economy ministers. 

Expectations are far lower for the one-day summit in Beijing on Thursday (24 July). Despite hopes that US president Donald Trump’s tariff wars would lead Brussels and Beijing to bury the hatchet on their own trade disputes this has not happened. Last month, the EU banned China from the bloc’s medical devices market in protest at China’s own trade barriers. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the EU summit, which marks the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties, another sign of the tensions in relations. 

“We know that we don’t see eye to eye with China on a number of issues”, said one EU official. 

Instead, the summits value is being framed through the prism of “having open and candid dialogue”, said one EU official. 

“We want to convey key messages so that they know what our concerns are,” the official added. 

EU officials will push for a ‘level playing field’ in trade and economic matters, a reference to Brussels’ complaints that China unfairly subsidises and protects its own industry and markets. 

But there could still be a joint declaration on climate and environment policy, which EU officials say would be an important sign ahead of the COP climate summit in Brazil in November. 

"Let’s see," the official said, implying that China is still a fundamental partner on the environment and climate.

Officials have played down the prospect of an agreement on minimum pricing for electric vehicles. Last year, the commission imposed additional tariffs ranging between 17 percent and 38 percent on Chinese electric cars after concluding that China was subsidising its car makers resulting in the average Chinese made EV being more than €10,000 cheaper than the Europe-made average. 

Next Tuesday, meanwhile, EU justice and home affairs ministers will gather in Copenhagen for two days of talks on migration policy. The talks will focus on returns systems, new solutions to manage irregular migration and combating drug trafficking, before covering data, organised crime and children’s rights on Wednesday (23 July). 

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