Listen: UN says global climate plans fall short, as the EU considers easing its 2040 target

The world’s latest climate plans are in and they fall drastically short. More than sixty countries have submitted their updated commitments to the United Nations, outlining how they’ll reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.

But according to the UN’s own analysis published today, these plans would only cut global carbon emissions by around 10 percent compared with 2019 levels.

That’s just one sixth of what’s needed to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the supposed goal of the Paris Agreement. So, are governments genuinely trying, or are these plans just for show?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Long Story Short” hosted by Evi Kiorri. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:

The world’s latest climate plans are in and they fall drastically short. More than sixty countries have submitted their updated commitments to the United Nations, outlining how they’ll reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. But according to the UN’s own analysis published today, these plans would only cut global carbon emissions by around 10 percent compared with 2019 levels.

That’s just one sixth of what’s needed to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the supposed goal of the Paris Agreement. So, are governments genuinely trying, or are these plans just for show?

Some of the biggest emitters like China, the EU, and the United States are either missing from the assessment or sending very mixed signals. China’s target of reducing carbon output by up to 10% by 2035 was widely criticised as weak. The EU can’t seem to agree on its own target, stuck between a 62 and a 72 percent cut. And the US pledge made under Joe Biden,  a 61% reduction by 2035 is effectively dead, now that Donald Trump has pulled the country out of the Paris Agreement for a second time.
The UN’s climate chief Simon Stiell tried to stay optimistic, saying countries are “laying out stepping stones toward net zero.” But he also warned that progress isn’t happening fast enough, and that acceleration must start now.

Meanwhile, inside the EU, things aren’t looking much better. Ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, the bloc is considering loosening its own climate rules to win support from industry-heavy member states.

A new draft proposal would let sectors like steel or chemicals pollute for longer, essentially slowing down the EU’s path to its 2040 target of a 90 percent emissions cut.

So, even Europe, which once prided itself on being the world’s climate leader, is quietly pressing the brakes.

Now, scientists say that to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming, global emissions must fall by 60% by 2035. But current pledges get us only a fraction of the way there. The past two years have already temporarily passed that 1.5-degree threshold. If that continues for several years, we’ll have officially crossed the line with all the floods, fires, and food crises that come with it.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth that politics is getting in the way. Rising energy prices, wars, and fears of losing industrial competitiveness are making leaders more cautious and less ambitious. Some are even using climate as a bargaining chip, suggesting that protecting industry or the military should take precedence over decarbonisation.

So, what now?

Next week, world leaders will meet in Brazil ahead of the COP30 summit, hosted in Belém.

Their task will be to figure out how to rescue the Paris Agreement from becoming just a nice memory.
Brazil wants to focus the talks on financing, on how richer countries can finally help developing ones adapt and cut emissions. But given the geopolitical tensions, and the presence or absence of certain leaders, it’s likely to be a stormy meeting.

As the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit put it: “The pledges move the world further, but not fast enough.”And that’s the problem. Progress is happening, just nowhere near the speed that environmentalists demand.