Mainstream loses control of agenda by mimicking far-right, study finds

During the 2024 European Parliament election campaign, centrist politicians warned about the threat posed by far-right parties to democracies. Yet experts suggest that the political mainstream itself is partly responsible for their growing success.

Far-right parties made significant gains in the June 2024 elections, growing support in 22 of the 27 EU member states.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, and the recently-formed Patriots of Europe (PfE), led by Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, alongside the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) of the Alternative for Germany, now collectively hold 187 of the EU Parliament’s 720 seats. While they are far from a majority, they have reached enough strength to actually influence European policymaking. 

Similar wins, or at least gains, have appeared at the domestic level, where more extremist parties are either winning elections in some countries or joining governing coalitions in others.

A recent study, published in the European Journal of Political Research in September, argues that one common strategy of mainstream political parties — adopting the same topics and rhetoric as the far-right — often backfires. 

Instead of reducing their appeal, it can amplify extremist narratives and legitimise their agenda.

Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti, co-author of the research, told EUobserver in an interview that this is closely linked to the idea that many mainstream parties underestimate their own agenda-setting power.

“You are driven by the agenda of others, if you cannot control the agenda yourself,” he said.

Rather than defining their own political vision, mainstream political parties frequently react to far-right messaging — especially on migration, security, and national identity.

When people think about a far-right party and their ideas of the future regarding migration, they have a clear line and a developed vision — despite being a negative one, Saldivia Gonzatti said. “But it doesn’t seem to be the case that democratic, mainstream parties have a developed vision about migration.”

The researchers also found that in Germany, traditional parties increasingly mirror far-right priorities. In fact, far-right agenda-setting often predicts what topics mainstream parties will later focus on.

What for the EU if Paris or Berlin go far-right?

In a separate paper, researchers from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs think tank argue that the influence of the far-right in Brussels/EU politics is already evident. They note that there is no 'cordon sanitaire' against governments with far-right parties in the European Council, where EU member states are represented.

In 2000, when the FPÖ entered Austria’s government, 14 EU members imposed sanctions on Austria by freezing bilateral relations — a move that was later reversed.

But when the FPÖ again made it into the government in 2017, European partners treated it as entirely normal. Which was equally the case when the PVV became the leading coalition partner in the Dutch government in June 2024.

The European People’s Party (EPP) dominates in the EU Council, with 11 of 27 leaders, representing 43.5 percent of the EU population. Three leaders — from Belgium, Italy, and the Czech Republic — belong to ECR, most notably Meloni who plays a central role due to her country’s weight.

Orbán remains the only PfE representative. He is increasingly isolated, prompting creative policy manoeuvring, such as issuing European Council conclusions on Ukraine, only supported by 26.

The experts note that Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Belgium together represent about 20 percent of the EU population — 21 percent with Slovakia — still short of a blocking minority. But if a major state like France were to elect a far-right government, that threshold could be reached.

“[But] the governments of these countries have formed neither a coherent group nor a coordinated political force — the coalition constellations and the ideological lines of the respective far-right parties are currently too diverse for that to happen,” they also said.

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