Iceland's confusing upcoming referendum on relations with EU

We got a new government in Iceland last Christmas which among other things aims to organise a referendum on our relations with the EU in 2027 at the latest.

The vote will, however, not be about whether Iceland should join the bloc but merely whether a new accession process should be launched to see what Brussels has to offer.

The last time this happened, it was referred to in the debate in Iceland as a 'doorbell prank' (the game where children ring a doorbell and run away before someone opens the door.)

The previous attempt was in 2009 after the international financial crisis had hit Iceland the year before with the collapse of the country’s three largest banks.

Proponents of EU membership saw the ensuing public despair as an opportunity to finally get Iceland into the bloc despite far from ideal circumstances.

Not the least a split coalition government towards the question of EU membership which repeatedly got in the way of the process. This was a major reason why it ran aground and was in fact doomed from the start.

The EU on regular basis aired its concerns over the fact that the two government parties, the Social Democratic Alliance and the Left Green Movement, did not agree on whether Iceland should join the bloc or not.

While the Social Democrats were in favour of membership the Left Greens were not. This meant for example that when the process required the consent of the government, some individual ministers only did so with all sorts of provisos which in turn created all sorts of problems for the process and its prospect of success.

Three-way compromise

We are facing similar situation now where the three current coalition parties have reached a compromise to hold the before-mentioned referendum but with no agreement to reapply for EU membership should the referendum deliver a positive response from the voters.

While the Social Democratic Alliance and the Liberal Reform Party are in favour of EU membership the People’s Party is opposed. Meanwhile, all the three opposition parties, the Independence Party, the Center Party and the Progress Party, reject the idea as well.

This simply means that there is a majority in the Icelandic parliament against joining the EU.

The People’s Party only agreed to the referendum to be able to form a government with the other two coalition parties (in a similar fashion to the Left Greens in 2009.)

Furthermore, the Social Democratic Alliance and the Liberal Reform Party did not emphasis EU membership in the run-up to the general elections last November. On the contrary the Social Democrats said the issue was off the agenda and the Liberals avoided mentioning it.

Meanwhile, some opinion polls have again started to show more people opposed to membership of the EU than in favour.

Support for joining the EU increased temporarily after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but before that every single opinion poll published in Iceland for 13 consecutive years had more people opposed to EU membership.

When put on the political agenda, opposition to joining the EU has had a strong tendency in Iceland to increase — which is of course a big headache for those in favour.

Opinion polling confusion

While recent polls have shown a large majority in favour of holding the referendum, much fewer people support launching fresh accession talks. This means that many people obviously just want the vote to be able to say no. Probably in the hope of finally killing the idea off.

Even the then leader of the European Movement Iceland conceded to the fact that this could as a result go either way. In other words, a large majority in favour of the referendum can only partly be considered as support for fresh accession talks.

Consequently, we have seen supporters of EU membership in Iceland openly debate in the media and on social media whether putting the issue on the agenda is a good idea due to the far from ideal circumstances, whether this will in the long run only harm the pro-EU cause like it did the last time which only led to increased opposition to joining the bloc. 

The current situation is even worse. Last time, the government at least agreed to apply for membership. As mentioned earlier, the current coalition is in no agreement on that.

Foreign minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir said recently that she believed there was currently enough public support in Iceland to reopen accession talks with the EU.

The last poll by Gallup, published in early April, had 43 percent in favour of EU membership and 39 percent opposed. The gap has been narrowing.

Meanwhile, the last two polls by the pollster Maskína have had more people against membership than in favour. The newer one, and also the most recent one, was produced for Gunnarsdóttir’s own foreign ministry.

For some reason, she failed to mention that.

This year, we turn 25 and are looking for 2,500 new supporting members to take their stake in EU democracy. A functioning EU relies on a well-informed public – you.