Ad
A second term for incumbent Ersin Tatar, an Erdoğan-ally, would mean further alignment with Turkey, and may put their goal — a reunited, federal Cyprus inside the European Union, beyond reach indefinitely (Photo: Robert Brown)

Opinion

This weekend's election in a European country no one recognises: North Cyprus

When Turkish Cypriots go to the polls on Saturday (19 October), they will not just be asked to choose a candidate to serve a five-year term as president of the unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus — they will be required to make a decision over whether to orient themselves in the direction of Turkey or Europe.

The election has two protagonist candidates — the pro-Turkey ally of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ersin Tatar, who insists that the only solution to the Cyprus problem is a two-state solution, and the pro-Europe opposition-backed Tufan Erhürman, who has stated his intention to return to negotiations based on a federal, reunited Cyprus.

Tatar is a firebrand, a straight-talking everyman who swept to power five years ago as a radical, demanding a break from the decades of talks geared towards the reunification of Cyprus under a bi-zonal, federal state and the unadulterated pursuit of a two-state solution instead.

He is a true believer in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and a key proponent of integration between Turkey and the TRNC, preaching unity between Turkic nations and emphasising Turkish Cypriots’ Turkishness when and where possible. 

Erhürman, meanwhile, is more of a pragmatist, who has spent much of the build-up to the election attempting to strike the difficult balance between departing from the two-state rhetoric which Turkey has so enthusiastically endorsed, and not actually alienating Turkey itself.

At his biggest rally of the election so far, he promised that “every corner of this island will be Europe” and stressed the importance of acquiring EU citizenship for those Turkish Cypriots who are yet to acquire it, while also calling for a return to talks based on a federal solution.

Turkey vs Europe 'referendum'?

Both candidates, therefore, have happily typecast themselves, with much of the Turkish Cypriot electorate thus seeing the electorate as a quasi-referendum between not just the two solution models on offer, but between Turkey and Europe.

Tatar’s ascent to the Turkish Cypriot community’s highest office was predicated on his promise of a departure from the federal solution model after negotiations to that end had spectacularly collapsed at the Swiss ski resort of Crans Montana in 2017.

In this endeavour, he was aided by winning the mandate of Ankara after his election opponent and subsequent predecessor Mustafa Akıncı, the pro-federation and pro-Europe candidate last time out, had an acrimonious fall-out with Turkey’s government during his final years in office. 

However, with the election won, his train somewhat hit the buffers. Demands for a two-state solution did not survive contact with the international community, which remained unmoved.

Even Azerbaijan, Turkey’s closest ally, free of the Karabakh issue (which Akıncı had previously said was the main obstacle to its recognition of the TRNC) did not budge, and even welcomed Greek Cypriot Nikos Christodoulides to Baku as the “president of Cyprus” during COP29 last year.

Frozen conflict

For five years, therefore, the Cyprus problem has been frozen.

No negotiations, no changes to the status quo, and barely any “confidence-building measures” which the UN has oft pushed to attempt to build relations between the two communities. 

Ordinarily, therefore, October’s election would be a formality.

The Turkish Cypriots are a fickle electorate, with only the TRNC’s founding president Rauf Denktaş having won re-election to the role as an incumbent, and all his successors having been turfed out after a single term. 

However, Tatar’s vehement rejection of a two-state solution has seen him retain a support base which is now treating the election as an existential matter.

They believe the choice on 19 October will be between Tatar and capitulation to the Greek Cypriots, which is what they now believe a return to federal negotiations would entail. 

It would, they insist, be tantamount to an admission that a two-state solution is beyond reach and that the TRNC is unviable.

Supporters of Erhürman, meanwhile, see the election as an existential matter for the opposite reason.

For them, refusing to return to federal negotiations means hitching their wagon to Turkey for ever, for better and for worse, even if Erhürman himself, keen not to alienate and be alienated by Turkey in the style of Akıncı, will not say this part out loud.

Many Erhürman supporters find Turkey’s influence over the TRNC to have stretched too far, particularly in light of the local ruling coalition’s attempts to legalise the wearing of headscarves by girls at public schools earlier this year — a move seen by many to have been made at Ankara’s behest, given the staunchly secular nature of the majority of Turkish Cypriots.

Thousands of people took to the streets to protest against the move and the local supreme court overturned it, but many opponents of Tatar took the ordeal as a warning rather than a victory. 

A second Tatar term would mean further alignment with Turkey, and may put their goal — a reunited, federal Cyprus inside the European Union, beyond reach indefinitely. 



Every month, hundreds of thousands of people read the journalism and opinion published by EUobserver. With your support, millions of others will as well.


If you're not already, become a supporting member today.

A second term for incumbent Ersin Tatar, an Erdoğan-ally, would mean further alignment with Turkey, and may put their goal — a reunited, federal Cyprus inside the European Union, beyond reach indefinitely (Photo: Robert Brown)

Tags

Author Bio

Tom Cleaver is chief reporter at the Cyprus Mail, who has specialised in covering the Turkish Cypriot community. 

Ad

Related articles

Ad
Ad