Listen: Most of the EU and two-thirds of the UN recognise Palestine. What now?

On Monday night in New York, European Council President António Costa announced that a majority of EU member states, 16 in number, now officially recognise the State of Palestine.

The list includes Belgium, Cyprus, Spain, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, Portugal, Malta, France and Luxembourg.

Costa didn’t directly call for other countries to follow, but his tone made clear he viewed this as a positive development, without him necessarily pointing that out.

Still, the EU remains deeply divided over its reaction to the Gaza war. But what does this recognition mean for Palestinians, for Israel’s retaliation, and for the EU countries?

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You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:

On Monday night in New York, European Council President António Costa announced that a majority of EU member states, 16 in numbers, now officially recognise the State of Palestine. The list includes Belgium, Cyprus, Spain, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, Portugal, Malta, France and Luxembourg. But what does this recognition mean for Palestinians, for Israel’s retaliation, and for the EU countries?

Costa didn’t directly call for other countries to follow, but his tone made clear he viewed this as a positive development, without him necessarily pointing that out. Still, the EU remains deeply divided over its reaction to the Gaza war.

And this division can be very evident as Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who was standing next to Costa, had a more reserved stance and avoided endorsing immediate recognition. She repeated that peace depends on a two-state solution, acknowledged that this goal is “in grave danger,” and promised more EU support for Gaza’s reconstruction.

Of course France’s Emmanuel Macron stole the show. At the special conference he co-chaired with Saudi Arabia, Macron declared France’s formal recognition of Palestine with the majority of the leaders present at the United Nations moving to rare applause.

Germany and Italy attended the meetings but stopped short of recognising Palestine, even as tens of thousands marched back home in Italy, where protests in major cities like Rome and Milan turned violent.

At the same time, the White House repeated Donald Trump’s view that recognising Palestine “rewards Hamas” and “does nothing to end this conflict.” Trump is due to address the General Assembly later this week.

Secretary-General António Guterres reminded leaders that Palestinian statehood is “a right, not a reward.” And the European commissioner for crisis management Hadja Lahbib said recognition must go beyond symbolism, stressing the urgent need for humanitarian aid and respect for international law.
The announcements mark a shift within Europe. Until recently, most Western nations declined recognition, insisting it could only come through direct negotiations with Israel. Now, several major EU countries, like France, Spain and Ireland, moved ahead regardless.

But the stance of Germany, Italy and others prevents the EU from acting as a united foreign policy actor, weakening Europe’s voice in the Middle East, especially compared to the United States, which continues to reject recognition outright.

So what now?

France and its allies hope momentum builds and more states follow. But Israel has already signalled it may respond with unilateral measures,Prime minister  Netanyahu is under pressure from his far-right coalition to pursue annexation, but the UAE, a key player in the 2020 Abraham Accords, has warned it would be a “red line,” without clarifying the consequences. So under the pressure Netanyahu says he will decide the retaliation after his meeting with Donald Trump in Washington next week.

Palestinians remain politically divided between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, making international recognition hard to translate into real sovereignty. To address this, France and Saudi Arabia proposed a UN-backed plan for a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern both territories, which won overwhelming support with 142 votes in favour.

But Hamas still rejects a two-state compromise, and peace talks have been frozen since 2009.   Advocates of the two-state solution say that without a Palestinian state, Israel will have to decide between the status quo, in which millions of Palestinians live under military occupation without equal rights, or a binational state that might not have a Jewish majority.