Pollwatch is a collaborative project between EUobserver and EM Analytics, a smart data solutions company, in the lead-up to the European elections in June 2024.
This project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of polls ahead of the elections, offering policymakers and expert insights into the upcoming political landscape, through a weighted ‘poll-of-polls’.
In short: the poll tracks a host of national polls and assigns each poller a weight, depending on how accurate their results have been over past elections versus polling – the more accurate, the weightier the poll.
Collating all this data across the 27 member states then provides a poll-of-polls that’s more than just a simple average. You can find out the more detailed methodology behind Pollwatch here.
(When looking at graphs comparing voting results from 2019 and current polls, please note that the distribution of seats in the European Parliament changed after Brexit.)
Since 1 February 2020, there have been 705 MEPs, down from the previous 751. Additionally, MEPs from Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party are considered for Pollwatch as non-inscrits [ie non-affiliated] since the party quit the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament in 2021.
As of April 2024, it is estimated that the EPP will remain the EU's largest political force, garnering around 22 percent of the votes.
Following closely behind, the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) are poised to secure around 18 percent of the vote. A notable shift is anticipated with the hard-right Identity and Democracy (ID) party emerging in third place, projected to capture 12 percent of the vote, and the rightwing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) gaining 11 percent of the votes — indicating a changing dynamic within the European political landscape.
Meanwhile, The Left (at around 7 percent), the Greens (on around 7 percent) and the liberal Renew Europe (around 10 percent) are set to become the election's big losers.
In the 6-9 June elections, all political parties are expected to see their number of seats reduced, except for Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). ECR is projected to gain an additional 24 seats, while ID is expected to secure one more seat. Additionally, the number of non-attached MEPs is also expected to increase. However, the final seat count hinges on whether Viktor Orbán's ruling Fidesz party, currently with 12 MEPs within the non-attached group, opts to join ECR (as already announced).
This map shows how the centre-right EPP will come out as a leading force in European countries like Spain and Germany, run by socialist coalitions. In Ireland, where there is a centre-right movement, The Left is expected to become the leading political group in the European elections. And in France, where a liberal government is in place, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party is expected to gain the majority of votes.
Meanwhile, the hard-right ID is expected to be the leading political family in France (National Rally), Austria (Freedom Party of Austria), and the Netherlands (Party for Freedom). In Germany, while the Christian Democratic Union of EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen holds strong, the far-right Alternative for Germany is gaining ground. And in Italy, Gorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, affiliated with the ECR group, is poised to secure significant support.
In this map, you can see the expected percentage of votes by political family and country, comparing the results to 2019.
In this map, you can see the expected number of MEPs by political family and country, comparing the results to 2019.
In this map, you can get an overview of the percentage of votes by political family per country.
In this map, you can get an overview of the number of MEPs by political family, and national political party.
This graph displays the make-up of the entire European Parliament, detailing the number of MEPs by political family and national party. For instance, it shows that out of the 77 MEPs projected to be affiliated with the far-right populist ID group, 18 are expected to come from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), while 27 are anticipated from the National Rally in France. Out of the 181 MEPs projected in the EPP group, 26 will be coming from Germany's CDU, 26 are from Spain's PP and 14 from Poland.
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.